Sunday 8 May 2016

2015-16 bubble shows: What's left on the chopping block?

It's that time of the television season once again as Upfronts are set to begin for the broadcast networks in a week's time. Perhaps it's the fact that this morning's Timehop presented me with tweets from the year ago day when a whole bunch of renewals and cancellations were announced, but it doesn't feel like a whole year has passed since the last Upfronts. In amidst all the chaos of learning about your favourite show's fate along with each network's new shows and fall schedules, it's a great time of year for those very reasons. Once a sad week - though it still can be, particularly if you lose shows you're not ready to say goodbye to - as it signalled the end of the TV season, with a plethora of channels broadcasting hundreds of shows each year, the summer palette is no longer as bare as it used to be.

Traditionally, the week or so prior to Upfronts consists of each of the broadcast networks - ABC, CBS, CW, FOX and NBC - announcing which of their shows will be returning in the following season, and which will not. This season, all five networks have made the majority of their decisions some time before this week: CBS renewed much of its slate in late March, CW and ABC in early March, while FOX and NBC have announced returnees at random points throughout the season.

There are still some shows left, however, and here, I'll go through them all, network by network, briefly assessing whether or not they'll be back for another season.

ABC

Already renewed: Agents of SHIELD, Black-ish, Fresh Off The Boat, Grey's Anatomy, How to Get Away With Murder, Modern Family, Once Upon a Time, Quantico, Scandal, The Goldbergs, The Middle

Already cancelled: Blood and Oil, Of Kings and Prophets


Agent Carter
Seasons: 2
18-49 demo average: 0.79

After a surprising renewal last season following some lacklustre ratings, it only got worse for Agent Carter as ratings continued to plummet. While the Marvel connection may have had influence in its renewal, it's difficult to see the show getting a third bite at the cherry, particularly given that Hayley Atwell has already been cast in a new pilot (ABC's Conviction).
Verdict: Cancelled

American Crime
Seasons: 2
18-49 demo average: 0.94

ABC's attempt to enter the world of the crime-related miniseries was far from successful on a numbers front, but the show's first season did score three Golden Globe nominations and ten Emmy nominations, which included a win for Regina King as "Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Limited Series". However, Fargo and American Crime Story are likely to walk virtually every category of the Limited Series variety at this year's Emmys, and with dwindling ratings, ABC may opt not to go for a third season. That being said, new ABC Entertainment President Channing Dungey was involved with the show's development, so all hope is not lost, even if it will likely not return.
Verdict: Cancelled

Castle
Seasons: 8
18-49 demo average: 1.07

Its ratings are falling, and after eight years of service to ABC, there was much talk of a final season for Castle. That is still on the cards, but any future the show has will be one without lead Stana Katic. She, along with Tamala Jones, were told in April that they wouldn't be asked to return to the show, reportedly as a cost-cutting measure, and many feel that the show shouldn't go on without her. But it is Nathan Fillion's character Richard Castle whose name is in the title, and after it was reported that he would return for a ninth season should one come about, it seems probable that ABC will give it a likely shortened and final season.
Verdict: Renewed

Dr. Ken
Seasons: 1
18-49 demo average: 1.10

ABC's new Friday comedy starring Ken Jeong hasn't done as well as the network would have hoped, falling to fractional ratings towards the end of its freshman run. Any chance of renewal likely depends on whether ABC feel that they have better comedy pilots in development, but my money would be on it not returning next year.
Verdict: Cancelled

Galavant
Seasons: 2
18-49 demo average: 0.63

Even more miraculous a renewal than Agent Carter, Galavant's ratings fell from terrible in its first season to barely registering on the scale in its second. No way it comes back for a third.
Verdict: Cancelled

Last Man Standing
Seasons: 5
18-49 demo average: 1.21

Last Man Standing hasn't exactly set the world on fire this season - or last season, for that matter - but it has been a solid performer on Friday nights. There isn't a great deal of mileage left to get out of this show, but there is at least one more season.
Verdict: Renewed

Nashville
Seasons: 4
18-49 demo average: 0.98

Sat in a somewhat odd position following ABC's Wednesday comedy block at 10pm, Nashville's future hangs in the balance after a season of poor ratings. Since its return from a long winter hiatus, Nashville has remained fractional, while issues surrounding Tennessee's anti-LGBT law has left the show in a "tricky situation," according to star Connie Britton. Meanwhile, showrunner Dee Johnson will depart at the end of the fourth season, to be replaced by Marshall Herskovitz and Ed Zwick, should the show make it to a fifth season. Given the added bonus of concerts and tours that the cast participate in, it's entirely plausible that ABC give it another year.
Verdict: Renewed

The Catch
Seasons: 1
18-49 demo average: 1.02

This Shondaland show has hugely underperformed, averaging only 1.02 in the seven aired episodes. ABC would be foolish to bring it back.
Verdict: Cancelled

The Family
Seasons: 1
18-49 demo average: 0.84

Sundays at 9pm has been a problem slot for ABC this year. After the short-lived Blood and Oil struggled there, the Joan Allen-led freshman series The Family was the network's attempt to revive the slot. Unfortunately, its season average is a tenth lower than Blood and Oil, leaving it virtually no hope of survival.
Verdict: Cancelled

The Muppets
Seasons: 1
18-49 demo average: 1.26

For such a huge property, The Muppets did surprisingly poorly, despite debuting to a 2.9. By the end, it had gone fractional for the final six episodes of its truncated first season. Being sold to 122 territories worldwide may just save Miss Piggy's bacon.
Verdict: Renewed

The Real O'Neals
Seasons: 1
18-49 demo average: 1.17

Tuesday nights have become a problem for ABC, with already renewed Fresh Off The Boat frequenting mid-to-low 1s. Its new lead-out (after having replaced The Muppets), The Real O'Neals, has twice gone fractional in its ten episodes (the first two of which premiered on Wednesday), and the alphabet network will probably cut their losses.
Verdict: Cancelled

CBS

Already renewed: Blue Bloods, Elementary, Hawaii Five-0, Madam Secretary, Mom, NCIS, NCIS: Los Angeles, NCIS: New Orleans, Scorpion, Two Broke Girls

Already cancelled/ending: Angel From Hell, Mike and Molly, Person of Interest, The Good Wife


Code Black
Seasons: 1
18-49 demo average: 1.27

After a poor start to the season, Code Black showed the odd sign of life towards the end of its freshman run. Will that be enough to save it? It seems unlikely.
Verdict: Cancelled

Criminal Minds: Beyond Borders
Seasons: 1
18-49 demo average: 1.33

The second spinoff from long-running drama Criminal Minds, Beyond Borders was placed in the exact same timeslot as its predecessor, Suspect Behaviour. It hasn't been second time lucky for CBS, with the show doing only slightly better than Code Black, which it replaced on the schedule in mid-March. Given that they co-own this with ABC (unlike Code Black, which is owned outright by ABC), it may have a slightly better chance. But I wouldn't count on it returning.
Verdict: Cancelled

CSI: Cyber
Seasons: 2
18-49 demo average: 0.92

The fact that CSI: Cyber even survived for a second season shows how determined CBS are to keep the CSI franchise alive. Its ratings have again been poor, though on a lower-rated Sunday night, less noticeable. Despite series star Ted Danson* having signed on to NBC's upcoming comedy series Good Place, Variety report that there is a 50-50 chance for a 13-episode third season. That seems far-fetched.

*Given that Danson only joined the cast for the second season after the mothership ended back in September, his exit from Cyber wouldn't be as telling as, say, Patricia Arquette's departure.
Verdict: Cancelled

Life in Pieces
Seasons: 1
18-49 demo average: 2.00

Though Life in Pieces began the season relying heavily on lead-in The Big Bang Theory, it has managed to establish an audience and when airing after an encore of the veteran comedy, remains constant. It's also the network's third highest rated show. The only question here is why CBS haven't renewed it sooner.
Verdict: Renewed

Limitless
Seasons: 1
18-49 demo average: 1.34

Perhaps the bubbliest of bubble shows this year, Limitless' future is nearly impossible to call. While ratings have fallen by the wayside in its final weeks, it began the season as quite a consistent performer and CBS may want to keep a relatively reliable show in a troublesome Tuesday 10pm slot. This one really could go either way.
Verdict: Renewed (but it is equally as likely to be cancelled)

Rush Hour
Seasons: 1
18-49 demo average: 0.92

This TV reboot of the Jackie Chan and Chris Tucker film series has failed to flourish on CBS, and a second season is extremely unlikely.
Verdict: Cancelled

Supergirl
Seasons: 1
18-49 demo average: 1.68

After premiering to a 3.1, the joint highest freshman premiere of the season, Supergirl's ratings have collapsed, falling to a 1.3 in four of its final five episodes. There is talk of the show moving to The CW, but given that CW President Mark Pedowitz has already rejected it once, it's difficult to see them saving it now. Throw in the fact that the pilot was reported to have cost $14m, it seems unlikely that The CW would take on such a problem, despite reports of the show moving production to Vancouver (where nearly all of The CW's shows film) to cut costs. CBS will almost certainly renew Supergirl for a second season, if for nothing else than to save face, but the length of a second season as well as its future remains less clear.
Verdict: Renewed

The Odd Couple
Seasons: 2
18-49 demo average: 1.55

Having been forgotten about by almost everyone, including, it seems, CBS, who pushed the series to April, The Odd Couple hasn't performed as badly as expected. The Matthew Perry comedy will probably get another season, though what CBS does with it after that is another matter.
Verdict: Renewed

CW

Already renewed: Arrow, Crazy Ex-Girlfriend, iZombie, Jane the Virgin, Legends of Tomorrow, Reign, Supernatural, The 100, The Flash, The Originals, The Vampire Diaries

Already cancelled: None


Containment
Seasons: 1
18-49 demo average: 0.51

The CW, already struggling somewhat for space on the schedule this season, renewed its entire line-up except for Containment. When you consider the need to facilitate new shows next season, along with the fact that the network began calling the show a limited series prior to its April premiere, Containment looks doomed regardless of its ratings.
Verdict: Cancelled

FOX

Already renewed: Brooklyn Nine-Nine, Empire, Gotham, Last Man on Earth, Lucifer, New Girl, Rosewood, Scream Queens

Already cancelled: Cooper Barrett's Guide to Surviving Life, Minority Report


Bordertown
Seasons: 1
18-49 demo average: 0.78

This animated comedy has hit 0.4 twice in its opening ten episodes. It's dead.
Verdict: Cancelled

Family Guy
Seasons: 14
18-49 demo average: 1.51

The already-once-cancelled Family Guy has, for some reason, yet to be renewed. All logic would appear to point towards another season.
Verdict: Renewed

Grandfathered
Seasons: 1
18-49 demo average: 0.93

One of FOX's new Tuesday night comedies, Grandfathered has failed to live up to expectations, having not gone above a 1.0 rating since the second episode, and falling to a 0.6 two weeks ago. There's very little chance of a return.
Verdict: Cancelled

Second Chance
Seasons: 1
18-49 demo average: 0.64

There will be no second chance for Second Chance, which is FOX's lowest rated show of the season.
Verdict: Cancelled

Sleepy Hollow
Seasons: 3
18-49 demo average: 0.83

Sleepy Hollow's third season went fractional on all but three occasions from 18, which puts it in a precarious position. However, after lead actress Nicole Beharie left the show at the end of this past season, it seems like the end.
Verdict: Cancelled

The Grinder
Seasons: 1
18-49 demo average: 0.76

FOX's other new Tuesday comedy, The Grinder hasn't found much of an audience, hitting a low of 0.5 in its most recent episode. Even less chance than Grandfathered.
Verdict: Cancelled

NBC

Already renewed: Blindspot, Chicago Fire, Chicago Med, Chicago PD, Grimm, Law and Order SVU, Shades of Blue, Superstore, The Blacklist

Already cancelled: Heroes Reborn, The Player, Truth Be Told, You, Me and the Apocalypse


Crowded
Seasons: 1
18-49 demo average: 1.01

Crowded's ratings have been poor, even for Sunday nights. Its 1.01 average owes to a 1.7/1.4 double episode premiere, and chances of a second season are slim.
Verdict: Cancelled

Game of Silence
Seasons: 1
18-49 demo average: 0.85

Replacing Shades of Blue at 10pm on Thursday nights, Game of Silence has been playing that on the ratings front. This will be a one-and-done.
Verdict: Cancelled

Heartbeat
Seasons: 1
18-49 demo average: 0.87

NBC's attempt to return to the world of medical drama, led here by Melissa George, has been unsurprisingly poor. Only its premiere wasn't fractional. There's no heartbeat here.
Verdict: Cancelled

Telenovela
Seasons: 1
18-49 demo average: 0.95

Telenovela wasn't quite the ratings success that its Monday night partner Superstore was, falling to a fractional average. In seasons gone by, NBC may have been desperate enough to renew a show at that level. Not this year.
Verdict: Cancelled

The Carmichael Show
Seasons: 2
18-49 demo average: 1.06

Though nothing special in the ratings, it's a solid, if not a little inconsistent, performer, particularly after being thrown into NBC's midseason schedule after a six-episode freshman run last summer. All things considered, The Carmichael Show can be hopeful of a third season.
Verdict: Renewed

The Mysteries of Laura
Seasons: 2
18-49 demo average: 1.11

After receiving a pity renewal last May to prevent the peacock network from having cancelled every single one of its new shows, The Mysteries of Laura has proven this season that it can be a consistent asset, even if not a high-rated one.
Verdict: Renewed

Undateable
Seasons: 3
18-49 demo average: 0.78

A third season of Undateable comprised entirely of live episodes was an interesting idea, but one that didn't really pay off for NBC.
Verdict: Cancelled

Which shows do you think will be renewed?

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